■ production and sales growth against the trend

 

Since 2019, the strong performance of Japanese brands has lasted for 8 months and is expected to lead the whole year. According to the latest production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in the first eight months of this year, China's automobile production and sales were 15.939 million and 16.104 million respectively, down 12.1% and 11% year on year. Among them, the automobile production and sales volume in August were 1.991 million and 1.958 million respectively, up 10.3% and 8% on a month on month basis, down 0.5% and 6.9% on a year-on-year basis. The negative growth trend of the market since July last year has not been fundamentally changed.

 

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Compared with the same period last year, in addition to the decline of independent brands, German brands declined slightly, while other brands declined significantly, of which the decline of legal system was close to 60%, while the sales volume of passenger vehicles of Japanese brands continued to maintain a small growth. This means that Japan's brand growth against the trend is unique. Specifically, Japan's three major brands, Honda, Toyota and Nissan, have made remarkable achievements.

 

According to the latest August sales data released by Honda, 124100 new cars were sold in China, up 7.1% on a month on month basis and 5.9% on a year-on-year basis. In the first eight months, 985500 new cars were sold, up 18.4% on a year-on-year basis. Honda's two joint ventures in China have seen good growth.  Among them, the sales volume of GAC Honda in August was 59400, an increase of 1.4% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales volume in the first eight months was 495600, an increase of 9.9% year-on-year. Dongfeng Honda sold 64700 new cars in August, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; in the first eight months, it sold 489900 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%.

 

In August this year, Toyota's cumulative sales volume in China reached 129000 vehicles (including Lexus), although a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, but before that, Toyota has achieved 17 consecutive months of year-on-year growth in China, while the cumulative sales volume in China in the first eight months has surpassed that of Honda and Nissan by breaking through 1 million vehicles. What's more, the cumulative sales volume of its high-end brand Lexus in the first eight months reached 126800, a significant increase of 24.90% year-on-year. According to the latest sales data of Dongfeng Nissan, the terminal retail sales exceeded 100000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and the cumulative sales volume in the first eight months exceeded 710000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%.

 

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■ stable and rational consumer groups

 

There are many reasons for the continuous decline of the overall production and sales volume of China's passenger car market. Some analysts believe that the main reason lies in the suppression of short-term effective demand. In recent years, the rapid growth of the real estate market, the increase of the debt ratio of residents, the downturn of the stock market, the rise of oil prices, and the transfer of labor force brought by environmental protection are the main factors for the lack of consumer confidence and the decline of purchasing power in the passenger car market.  Especially in the third and fourth tier cities, which have become the main growth force of China's passenger vehicle consumption, the sharp decline of the consumption capacity of the main consumers directly leads to the recession of passenger vehicle consumption. Especially since 2018, the implementation of the de capacity and blue sky defense war has greatly affected the survival of a number of small and medium-sized enterprises, thus affecting the income of employees. The rise of house prices in the third and fourth tier cities has also directly squeezed consumers' automobile consumption ability.

 

"Relatively speaking, the main consumer groups of Japanese cars are middle-class people with stable work and considerable income, which are less affected by the downward pressure of the economy. However, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces with high income and developed economy still maintain relatively strong demand for automobile consumption." According to Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger vehicle market information Federation, one of the reasons why Japanese brands are able to achieve the counter trend growth is that the consumption ability of their consumer groups is less affected by the economic environment. On the contrary, other brands, especially the independent brands, are in a different situation. Due to the reduction of income, the consumption demand is restrained.

 

"In the past few years, the growth rate of Japanese car series has declined significantly compared with other car series, and even many Japanese manufacturers began to fade out of the top ten list of sales volume. At present, there are changes in the consumer market, and the advantages of Japanese cars with high cost performance begin to appear. " Wang Qing, deputy director of the market economy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, said, "whether it is a model of 100000 yuan or 200000 yuan, Japanese cars have high cost performance in terms of design, quality and service. Therefore, in the case of market differentiation and overall decline in the growth rate of the consumer market, consumers can upgrade or degrade their consumption in Japanese cars. Choose the right product within the price range. "

 

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"I think from the perspective of the overall environment, the outstanding performance of Japanese car companies benefited from the Chinese consumers' consumption concept and began to return to rationality. First, the younger generation of automobile consumers have become the main force of purchase. Their information access channels are rich, and they are no longer influenced by the surrounding population monument alone, and the competitiveness of German and American cars is no longer so prominent; second, the consumption capacity of the new generation of consumers and